The Institute of National Planning (INP) has officially launched the Egypt Macro Econometric Model (INP–EMM) during a high-level scientific event held at the Institute’s headquarters, with the participation of a wide range of leading experts, economists, and representatives of government entities, research institutions, and academia. The launch reflects an advanced institutional orientation toward strengthening the use of quantitative analytical tools to support economic policymaking and assess policy impacts.
In this context, Prof. Ashraf El-Araby, President of the Institute of National Planning, stated that the launch of the model represents the outcome of cumulative scientific and applied efforts extending over more than three years. The work was grounded in an integrated methodological framework that progressed through successive stages, including conceptual foundation building, theoretical and econometric formulation, and ultimately empirical estimation and macroeconomic forecasting. He emphasized that the model marks a qualitative leap in the Institute’s capacity to analyze economic policies, simulate their impacts, and formulate evidence-based policy alternatives.
He added that the development of the model was the product of intensive institutional teamwork focused on constructing long-time-series economic databases and estimating the structural relationships governing the Egyptian economy. This has enabled the establishment of a comprehensive analytical framework capable of capturing the interlinkages among different economic sectors. He noted that this achievement does not represent the end of the journey, but rather the starting point for a continuous phase of updating and development aimed at enhancing decision-support efficiency.
The model is built on an integrated macro-econometric structure that combines both demand and supply sides. It covers the real sector, monetary sector, public finance, external trade, labor market, and price dynamics within an interconnected system of behavioral equations and accounting identities. This structure enables macroeconomic forecasting, scenario building, and policy impact assessment under alternative assumptions. The launch event also featured the inauguration of an interactive digital platform designed to operate the model, allowing users to input assumptions, simulate scenarios, and review results in a simplified and systematic manner—thereby enhancing the practical usability of the model within policymaking circles.
Dr. Mariam Raouf, Director of the Modeling Unit at INP, delivered a technical presentation outlining the model’s methodological framework, core components, and operational applications in forecasting and policy simulation. The model was developed by the INP Modeling Unit team, including: Dr. Ahmed Rashad, Dr. Sahar Aboud, Dr. Sherine Beshry, Dr. Fatma Elhamalawy, Dr. Nevine Abdelaziz, and Dr. Hassan Rabie, who led the development of the model’s interactive digital platform. They were supported by the research assistant team: Marina Adel, Nahla Salem, and Aya El-Sersi, who contributed to database construction, equation estimation, scenario testing, and preparation of the model’s applied outputs.
It is worth noting that the launch event witnessed high-level participation from institutional partners and experts supporting the modeling and capacity-building track, including Dr. Adel Al-Waqian, Director General of the Arab Planning Institute in Kuwait, alongside Dr. Samir Radwan, former Minister of Finance; Dr. Hussein Abdelaziz, Advisor to the President of the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS); and Dr. Maged Osman, Director of the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research (Baseera). The event also brought together a distinguished group of professors, academics, and specialists from within and beyond the Institute, adding significant scientific and practical depth that reflects the model’s importance and the breadth of its potential applications.
The Institute of National Planning affirmed that the launch of INP-EMM represents a pivotal milestone in building a national school of macroeconomic modeling and expanding the use of quantitative analysis in development planning. It is expected to contribute to enhancing public policy efficiency and strengthening the capacity to respond to current and future economic challenges.
